Skip to content
sugardice
UEFA Conference League

Ajax vs Atalanta prediction, tips and odds

Ajax, without season-long absentee Dolberg and four more, host an Atalanta also missing key forward Raspadori with both sides' matches running goal-heavy
  • goals fest
  • both score
  • weakened side
  • high stakes
  • rotation risk
  • league
  • Ajax: high
  • Atalanta: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
UEFA Conference League

Our prediction

Ajax
0 pts
FormW, L, D, D, W

Kasper Dolberg (out), Steven Berghuis (out), Daley Blind (out), Anton Gaaei (out), Caio Henrique (out), Oliver Edvardsen (out)

Atalanta
3 pts
FormL, W, W, L, L

Giacomo Raspadori (out), Giorgio Scalvini (doubtful), Sead Kolasinac (doubtful)

Our prediction
1–13.0 goals projected
AJA 43%Draw 24%ATA 33%
goals per meeting
2.5goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
1/2with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
1/2over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Atalanta keep it closeOur pickAtalanta starts 2.5 goals ahead
    1.13
  • A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 2.5 Goals
    Price hidden until revealed
Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
AJA 43%Draw 24%ATA 33%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–111%
  • 2–19%
  • 1–08%
Projected goals
3.0
Likeliest at half time
0–026%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Ajax against Atalanta
StatAJAATATotal
Goals1.611.43.0
Expected goals (xG)2.131.373.5
Shots18.213.131.3
Shots on target6.414.911.3
Corners5.163.959.1
Fouls9.9610.120.1

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
AjaxW, L, D, D, W
AtalantaL, W, W, L, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendAJAATA
Over 2.5 goals4/55/5
Both teams scored5/55/5
Clean sheets0/50/5
Failed to score0/50/5
Head-to-head · last 2
0
AJA wins
1
Draws
1
ATA wins
  • LAjax 0–1 Atalanta2020-12-09 · UEFA Champions League group stage1 gls
  • DAtalanta 2–2 Ajax2020-10-27 · UEFA Champions League group stage4 gls
2.5goals per meeting1/2with both teams scoring1/2over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Ajax WW away (Groningen 5-2, Fortuna 5-1) but no home league win: NEC 1-1, Excelsior 2-2, plus 1-2 loss at Hajduk — goals at both ends in all five. Atalanta WLW then two away defeats (Roma 1-2, Milan 2-3); 3 goals in both recent wins, 3-1 up at HT v Venezia.
History
Only two competitive meetings on record, both in the 2020/21 Champions League group stage: Atalanta 2-2 Ajax (27 Oct 2020; HT 0-2) and Ajax 0-1 Atalanta (9 Dec 2020; HT 0-0). Atalanta are unbeaten in the two (1 win, 1 draw), and both matches were low-scoring after early goals — the first-half pattern split 2 goals then 0. Nothing since (no league meetings; they play in different countries), so the sample is old and small — six years and a different competition (Champions League then, Conference…
The competition
UEFA Conference League 2026/27, league phase (36 teams, six matchdays, single table) — Matchday 2. Ajax lost MD1 1-2 at Hajduk Split; Atalanta won MD1 3-1 at home to Pafos. Both are senior top-flight clubs (Eredivisie 4th after 9 rounds; Serie A mid-table) and among the biggest names in this league phase, so a top-8 finish (direct last-16) is the realistic target. This is an ordinary league-phase round, not a knockout leg, but the two sides' toughest test of the phase so far. Fixture congestion…

Team news

Ajax
  • Kasper Dolberg — out (fwd)
  • Steven Berghuis — out (fwd)
  • Daley Blind — out (def)
  • Anton Gaaei — out (def)
  • Caio Henrique — out (def)
  • Oliver Edvardsen — out (fwd)
Atalanta
  • Giacomo Raspadori — out (fwd)
  • Giorgio Scalvini — doubtful (def)
  • Sead Kolasinac — doubtful (def)

UEFA Conference League table

UEFA Conference League standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Atalanta1—3
2Ajax1—0

as read when this competition was last scouted.

More UEFA Conference League tips this weekend

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Ajax vs Atalanta prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Ajax 43%, the draw 24% and Atalanta 33%.

What is the best bet for Ajax vs Atalanta?

Our tip is Atalanta starts 2.5 goals ahead at 1.13.

What time does Ajax vs Atalanta kick off?

Ajax vs Atalanta kicks off at Thu 19:00 in the UEFA Conference League.

Who is out for Ajax vs Atalanta?

Reported absences: Kasper Dolberg (out), Steven Berghuis (out), Daley Blind (out), Anton Gaaei (out), Caio Henrique (out), Oliver Edvardsen (out), Giacomo Raspadori (out), Giorgio Scalvini (doubtful), Sead Kolasinac (doubtful).

What happened the last time Ajax vs Atalanta met?

Ajax 0–1 Atalanta (2020-12-09 · UEFA Champions League group stage). Over their last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Ajax, 1 draw and 1 for Atalanta.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.