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German Cup

Bochum vs Mainz prediction, tips and odds

Second-tier Bochum, without a home league win all season, host a Mainz side unbeaten in five of the last six meetings — with Mainz keeper and captain Robin Zentner doubtful.
  • one sided
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • high ceiling
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • Bochum: high
  • Mainz: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
German Cup

Our prediction

Bochum
13th · 8 pts
FormD, L, L, L

Philipp Strompf (out), Jean Manuel Mbom (out), Babis Drakas (out), Enis Çokaj (out), Oliver Olsen (out)

Mainz
7th · 10 pts
FormL, W, L, W, W

Robin Zentner (doubtful), Dominik Kohr (out), Otto Ruoppi (out)

Our prediction
1–12.9 goals projected
BOC 24%Draw 23%MAI 53%
goals per meeting
3.8goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
4/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
4/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Mainz come throughOur pickMainz
    1.73
  • Bochum keep it closeOur pickBochum starts 3 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
BOC 24%Draw 23%MAI 53%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–111%
  • 1–210%
  • 0–110%
Projected goals
2.9
Likeliest at half time
0–027%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Bochum against Mainz
StatBOCMAITotal
Goals1.131.812.9

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
BochumD, L, L, L
MainzL, W, L, W, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendBOCMAI
Over 2.5 goals1/44/5
Both teams scored2/43/5
Clean sheets0/42/5
Failed to score2/40/5
Head-to-head · last 6
0
BOC wins
1
Draws
5
MAI wins
  • LVfL Bochum 1–4 1. FSV Mainz 052025-05-10 · Bundesliga5 gls
  • L1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum2025-01-11 · Bundesliga2 gls
  • L1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum2024-03-16 · Bundesliga2 gls
  • DVfL Bochum 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 052023-10-27 · Bundesliga4 gls
  • L1. FSV Mainz 05 5–2 VfL Bochum2023-01-28 · Bundesliga7 gls
3.8goals per meeting4/6with both teams scoring4/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Bochum LDLL: 1-1 v Wolfsburg, 0-2 at Kaiserslautern, 0-1 v Bielefeld, plus a 1-2 loss at Bielefeld — six goals in nine 2. Bundesliga games, toothless. Mainz W-L-W-L-L: 2-3 v Werder, 1-0 at Schalke, 3-4 v Leverkusen, 4-3 at Gladbach, 5-0 at HSV — scoring freely but leaking at bot…
History
Bochum (2. Bundesliga, 14th in 2026/27) and Mainz (Bundesliga, 7th) are not near-equals now: Mainz are the established top-flight side, Bochum were relegated in 2025 and are mid-table in the second tier. Recent league meetings were dominated by Mainz: Bochum 1-4 Mainz (10 May 2025), Mainz 2-0 Bochum (11 Jan 2025), Mainz 2-0 Bochum (16 Mar 2024), Bochum 2-2 Mainz (27 Oct 2023), Mainz 5-2 Bochum (28 Jan 2023), Bochum 1-2 Mainz (6 Aug 2022) — five Mainz wins and one draw in the last six. Earlier c…
The competition
DFB-Pokal (German Cup) 2026/27, Round of 32, single-leg knockout tie at Bochum's Vonovia Ruhrstadion — no second leg. Bochum are a 2. Bundesliga side sitting 13th (9 played, 8 pts, 6:10 goals) and struggling badly in the league, so the cup is their brightest route to a statement; Mainz are a Bundesliga side 7th on 10 points after 7 games, an inconsistent run (L-W-L-W-L) that has them chasing a confidence-boosting cup win. Standard mismatch of one division, hence Mainz's clear favouritism. Cup t…

Team news

Bochum
  • Philipp Strompf — out (def)
  • Jean Manuel Mbom — out (def)
  • Babis Drakas — out (fwd)
  • Enis Çokaj — out (mid)
  • Oliver Olsen — out (def)
Mainz
  • Robin Zentner — doubtful (gk)
  • Dominik Kohr — out (mid)
  • Otto Ruoppi — out (unknown)

German Cup table

German Cup standings
#ClubPLGDPts
13Bochum9—8
7Mainz 057—10
8Arminia Bielefeld9—11
4VfL Osnabrück8—8

as read when this competition was last scouted.

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Bochum vs Mainz prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Bochum 24%, the draw 23% and Mainz 53%.

What is the best bet for Bochum vs Mainz?

Our tip is Full time result · Mainz at 1.73. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Bochum vs Mainz kick off?

Bochum vs Mainz kicks off at Tue 17:00 in the German Cup.

Who is out for Bochum vs Mainz?

Reported absences: Robin Zentner (doubtful), Dominik Kohr (out), Otto Ruoppi (out), Philipp Strompf (out), Jean Manuel Mbom (out), Babis Drakas (out), Enis Çokaj (out), Oliver Olsen (out).

What happened the last time Bochum vs Mainz met?

VfL Bochum 1–4 1. FSV Mainz 05 (2025-05-10 · Bundesliga). Over their last 6 meetings it is 0 wins for Bochum, 1 draw and 5 for Mainz.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.