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Spanish Copa del Rey

UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC prediction, tips and odds

Fourth-tier Poblense, unbeaten in three and strong at home, host a Ceuta side with one win in 11 league games that has conceded 2+ in four of their last five.
  • both score
  • one sided
  • high stakes
  • rotation risk
  • high ceiling
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • UD Poblense: high
  • AD Ceuta FC: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Spanish Copa del Rey

Our prediction

UD Poblense
10th · 10 pts
FormW, D, W, L, L
AD Ceuta FC
21st · 5 pts
FormL, L, L, D, W
Our prediction
2–03.1 goals projected
UD 67%Draw 19%AD 14%
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • UD Poblense keep it closeOur pickUD Poblense starts 2 goals ahead
    1.25
  • Goals keep comingOur pickOver 1.5 Goals
    Price hidden until revealed
Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
UD 67%Draw 19%AD 14%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 2–011%
  • 1–010%
  • 2–110%
Projected goals
3.1
Likeliest at half time
0–025%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for UD Poblense against AD Ceuta FC
StatUD AD Total
Goals2.220.93.1

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
UD PoblenseW, D, W, L, L
AD Ceuta FCL, L, L, D, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendUD AD
Over 2.5 goals3/54/5
Both teams scored3/55/5
Clean sheets1/50/5
Failed to score1/50/5

Match context

  • sa Pobla 28 Oct: sunny spells, ~22C, 4% rain, NNE wind 15-25 mph; nothing flagged as problematic.
Form
Poblense: W 1-0 Peña, D 2-2 Yeclano, W 2-1 Castellón B, L 1-2 At. Baleares, L 0-2 Alcoyano — strong at home, losing away. Ceuta: L 1-3 Cádiz, L 1-2 Oviedo, L 1-2 Sabadell, D 1-1 Castellón, W 3-1 Sociedad B — scoring every game but leaking 2+ in four of five.
History
No verifiable prior senior meeting found: FootyStats' H2H page explicitly states "These two clubs have never met before domestically... no previous head to head stats" and classifies this as their first meeting. One AD Ceuta club news item (undated in the excerpt, mixed in with 2022/2026 posts) references ticketing for "UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC – Primera eliminatoria Copa de S.M. el Rey", which I could NOT confirm as an earlier 2022/23 cup tie or its score, so no earlier meeting is recorded.…
The competition
Copa del Rey 2026/27, first round (single leg, extra time if level, at the lower-division side's ground). Poblense (Segunda Federación Group 3, 4th tier) host AD Ceuta (LaLiga Hypermotion, 2nd tier), who sit 21st in the second division after 11 rounds — weak league form but 4 pts from their last three. Poblense are mid-table in Group 3 (10th after 8 rounds, 10 pts). Second-tier side favoured; Poblense's hope is home form.

Team news

UD Poblense

No absences reported.

AD Ceuta FC

No absences reported.

Spanish Copa del Rey table

Spanish Copa del Rey standings
#ClubPLGDPts
21AD Ceuta FC11—5
10UD Poblense8—10

as read when this competition was last scouted.

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC prediction?

We project 2–0. Our model gives UD Poblense 67%, the draw 19% and AD Ceuta FC 14%.

What is the best bet for UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC?

Our tip is UD Poblense starts 2 goals ahead at 1.25.

What time does UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC kick off?

UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC kicks off at Thu 18:00 in the Spanish Copa del Rey.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.