Alaves vs Malaga prediction, tips and odds
- league
- Alaves: high
- Malaga: must win
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- Spanish La Liga
Our prediction
Mikel Rodríguez (out), Facundo Garcés (out), Ville Koski (doubtful)
Julen Lobete (out), Juan Cruz (out), Joaquín Muñoz (out), Diego Murillo (out), Aarón Ochoa (out), Moussa Diarra (doubtful)
- goals per meeting
- 2.2goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 3/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 3/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Alaves come throughOur pickAlaves1.66
- Malaga keep it closeOur pickMalaga starts 2 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–013%
- 1–112%
- 2–011%
- Projected goals
- 2.6
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–032%
- Competition goals a game
- 3.04
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 57%
| Stat | ALA | MAL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 | 0.89 | 2.5 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 | 1.19 | 2.6 |
| Shots | 12.6 | 11.5 | 24.0 |
| Shots on target | 4.62 | 3.52 | 8.1 |
| Corners | 4.69 | 5.46 | 10.2 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | ALA | MAL |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2/5 | 2/5 |
| Both teams scored | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 1/5 |
| Failed to score | 2/5 | 2/5 |
- WAlaves 2–1 Malaga2023-05-20 · Segunda Division3 gls
- LMalaga 1–0 Alaves2022-12-18 · Segunda Division1 gls
- WMalaga 0–3 Alaves2018-05-06 · La Liga3 gls
- WAlaves 1–0 Malaga2017-12-21 · La Liga1 gls
- WMalaga 1–2 Alaves2017-03-11 · La Liga3 gls
Match context
- Form
- Alaves DLD(L)W-ish: 1-1 Sevilla, 1-2 Atletico, 0-0 Athletic, 0-1 Valencia, 5-2 Osasuna (11 GF/10 GA in 9); Malaga winless: 2-5 Sociedad, 1-1 Espanyol, 0-1 Getafe, 1-3 Villarreal, 0-0 Levante (6 GF, 18 GA) — division's leakiest defence.
- History
- Most recent meeting: 20 May 2023, Alaves 2-1 Malaga (Segunda, HT 0-0). Before that Malaga 1-0 Alaves (Dec 2022, Segunda). The La Liga era was all Alaves: Malaga 0-3 Alaves (May 2018), Alaves 1-0 Malaga (Dec 2017), Malaga 1-2 Alaves (Mar 2017, HT 0-1), Alaves 1-1 Malaga (Oct 2016, HT 1-0). Alaves unbeaten in the last six meetings (4W 1D... actually 4W 1D 1L in the last six). Both are similar-sized mid/low-table Spanish clubs, but currently far apart: Alaves sit 7th (11 pts, 9 games) under new La…
- The competition
- Spanish La Liga (LaLiga EA Sports) 2026-27, Spain's top flight, Matchday 10 of 38 at Mendizorroza. Both clubs are newly promoted: Alavés sit 7th on 11 pts (3W 2D 4L, 13 GF 10 GA) chasing the European/upper-mid group; Málaga are 20th and bottom on 4 pts (0W 4D 5L, 6 GF 18 GA) — already in a straight relegation fight, so this is a must-not-lose for the visitors. Alavés' form has dipped (L L D L L in the league), Málaga's is winless but with draws (L D L L D). No cup context: an ordinary league ro…
Team news
- Mikel Rodríguez — out (mid)
- Facundo Garcés — out (def)
- Ville Koski — doubtful (def)
- Julen Lobete — out (fwd)
- Juan Cruz — out (fwd)
- Joaquín Muñoz — out (mid)
- Diego Murillo — out (def)
- Aarón Ochoa — out (mid)
- Moussa Diarra — doubtful (def)
Spanish La Liga table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | — | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | — | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | — | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | — | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | — | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | — | 14 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1RaphinhaBarcelona12 goals
- 2Kylian MbappeReal Madrid9 goals
- 3Lamine YamalBarcelona8 goals
- 4Sergio CamelloRayo Vallecano7 goals
- 5Yassir ZabiriRacing Santander7 goals
- 1Lamine YamalBarcelona6 assists
- 2Javi HernandezEspanyol4 assists
- 1Jan OblakAtletico Madrid4 clean sheets
Goal.com table after MD9; NBC Sports scorers (18 Oct 2026); SoccerNews assists; FBref clean sheets
More tips this week
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- Atletico Grau vs Asociacion Deportiva Tarma · Both teams to score · Yes1.90
- Independiente (Ecu) vs Univ Catolica (Ecu) · Full time result · Independiente (Ecu)1.83
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Frequently asked questions
What is our Alaves vs Malaga prediction?
We project 1–0. Our model gives Alaves 56%, the draw 24% and Malaga 20%.
What is the best bet for Alaves vs Malaga?
Our tip is Full time result · Alaves at 1.66. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Alaves vs Malaga kick off?
Alaves vs Malaga kicks off at Fri 19:00 in the Spanish La Liga.
Who is out for Alaves vs Malaga?
Reported absences: Mikel Rodríguez (out), Facundo Garcés (out), Ville Koski (doubtful), Julen Lobete (out), Juan Cruz (out), Joaquín Muñoz (out), Diego Murillo (out), Aarón Ochoa (out), Moussa Diarra (doubtful).
What happened the last time Alaves vs Malaga met?
Alaves 2–1 Malaga (2023-05-20 · Segunda Division). Over their last 6 meetings it is 4 wins for Alaves, 1 draw and 1 for Malaga.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.