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Italian Serie A

Atalanta vs Parma prediction, tips and odds

Atalanta, winless in five, host second-bottom Parma with both first-choice centre-backs Hien and Kristensen out
  • goals fest
  • one sided
  • weakened side
  • high stakes
  • league
  • Atalanta: high
  • Parma: must win
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

Atalanta
7th · 59 pts
FormD, D, L, L, W

Thomas Kristensen (out), Isak Hien (out), Odilon Kossounou (out), Sead Kolasinac (out), Raoul Bellanova (out), Gianluca Scamacca (out), Gianluca Gaetano (out), Giacomo Raspadori (out), Franck Kessie (out)

Parma
13th · 45 pts
FormD, L, L, L, W

Nesta Elphege (doubtful)

Our prediction
2–13.1 goals projected
ATA 64%Draw 21%PAR 15%

De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.

goals per meeting
3.8goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
3/4with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
3/4over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Atalanta come throughOur pickAtalanta
    1.56
  • Parma keep it closeOur pickParma starts 3 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

The market's readNot our model
ATA 64%Draw 21%PAR 15%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 2–110%
  • 1–19%
  • 2–09%
Projected goals
3.1
Likeliest at half time
0–024%
Competition goals a game
2.43
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Atalanta against Parma
StatATAPARTotal
GoalsLeague 1.212.091.053.1
Expected goals (xG)League 1.31.511.362.9
Shots17.415.833.1
Corners4.914.259.2
Fouls11.610.221.8

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
AtalantaD, D, L, L, W
ParmaD, L, L, L, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendATAPAR
Over 2.5 goals4/54/5
Both teams scored4/52/5
Clean sheets0/51/5
Failed to score1/53/5
Head-to-head · last 4
2
ATA wins
1
Draws
1
PAR wins
  • WAtalanta 4–0 Parma2026-01-25 · Serie A4 gls
  • DParma 1–1 Atalanta2025-08-30 · Serie A2 gls
  • LAtalanta 2–3 Parma2025-05-25 · Serie A5 gls
  • WParma 1–3 Atalanta2024-11-23 · Serie A4 gls
3.8goals per meeting3/4with both teams scoring3/4over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Atalanta DLWDL — 2-2 at Fiorentina, 4-4 v Frosinone, 2-0 loss at Juventus (Milan 3-2 loss earlier); leaky, 11 goals in last five but conceding freely. Parma DLLLD — 0-0 v Udinese, 2-1 loss at Lazio, 0-3 v Torino, 0-3 at Inter; just 1 goal in five and no clean sheet since Septemb…
History
All four most recent meetings are Serie A, all inside the last two seasons. Atalanta won the latest 4-0 (25 Jan 2026, Bergamo, HT 2-0); the earlier 2025-26 meeting at Parma was 1-1 (30 Aug 2025). Parma won both 2024-25 games at home effectively — Atalanta 2-3 Parma (25 May 2025, Bergamo) and Parma 1-3 Atalanta (23 Nov 2024, Tardini, HT 0-2 — so Parma's "home" win in sources is the 2-3 away win at Bergamo). Overall recent edge to Atalanta but Parma have beaten them in Bergamo twice in a row (Nov…
The competition
Italian Serie A 2026-27, Italy's top flight (grade 1) — an ordinary league round (Matchday 10-ish; both sides played MD9 on 28-29 October). Atalanta sit 12th with 11 points from 9 games (3W 2D 4L, 16 GF/17 GA) — well below expectations, only six points above the drop and chasing the European places, while also playing in the UEFA Conference League (Ajax away 22 Oct, Kairat at home 5 Nov), so squad rotation is live. Parma are 19th on 5 points from 9 (1W 2D 6L, just 5 goals scored), just a point…

Team news

Atalanta
  • Thomas Kristensen — out (def)
  • Isak Hien — out (def)
  • Odilon Kossounou — out (def)
  • Sead Kolasinac — out (def)
  • Raoul Bellanova — out (def)
  • Gianluca Scamacca — out (fwd)
  • Gianluca Gaetano — out (mid)
  • Giacomo Raspadori — out (fwd)
  • Franck Kessie — out (mid)
Parma
  • Nesta Elphege — doubtful (fwd)

Italian Serie A table and leaders

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Inter38—87
2Napoli38—76
3Roma38—73
4Como38—71
5Milan38—70
6Juventus38—69

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Lautaro MartínezInter17 goals
  2. 2Anastasios DouvikasComo14 goals
  3. 3Doyell MalenRoma14 goals
  4. 4Marcus ThuramInter13 goals
  5. 5Nico PazComo12 goals

Scorers: matchcalendar/FBref final 2025-26 list; assists: FBref season summary; clean sheets: FBref/StatMuse 2025-26 keeper table.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Atalanta vs Parma prediction?

We project 2–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Atalanta 64%, the draw 21% and Parma 15%.

What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Parma?

Our tip is Full time result · Atalanta at 1.56. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Atalanta vs Parma kick off?

Atalanta vs Parma kicks off at Mon 19:45 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for Atalanta vs Parma?

Reported absences: Thomas Kristensen (out), Isak Hien (out), Odilon Kossounou (out), Sead Kolasinac (out), Raoul Bellanova (out), Gianluca Scamacca (out), Gianluca Gaetano (out), Giacomo Raspadori (out), Franck Kessie (out), Nesta Elphege (doubtful).

What happened the last time Atalanta vs Parma met?

Atalanta 4–0 Parma (2026-01-25 · Serie A). Over their last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Atalanta, 1 draw and 1 for Parma.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.