Skip to content
sugardice
Italian Serie A

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction, tips and odds

Bottom-five clash with both defences leaking: Sassuolo have scored in every league game this season, Fiorentina have kept one clean sheet, and a relegation six-pointer is missing Pongracic.
  • goals fest
  • both score
  • even match
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • league
  • Sassuolo: high
  • Fiorentina: must win
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

Sassuolo
11th · 49 pts
FormL, L, L, D, L

Kristian Thorstvedt (out), Ismael Kone (out), Fedde Leysen (out), Daniel Boloca (out), Yeferson Paz (out), Edoardo Pieragnolo (doubtful)

Fiorentina
15th · 42 pts
FormD, L, L, L, D

Marin Pongracic (out), Luca Ranieri (doubtful), Arthur Atta (out), Fabiano Parisi (out)

Our prediction
1–13.5 goals projected
SAS 34%Draw 26%FIO 40%

De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.

goals per meeting
3.0goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
4/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
4/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Goals keep comingOur pickOver 1.5 Goals
    1.19
  • Fiorentina come throughOur pickDraw or Away
    Price hidden until revealed
Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

The market's readNot our model
SAS 34%Draw 26%FIO 40%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–19%
  • 1–28%
  • 2–18%
Projected goals
3.5
Likeliest at half time
0–020%
Competition goals a game
2.43
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Sassuolo against Fiorentina
StatSASFIOTotal
GoalsLeague 1.211.751.83.5
Shots14.715.830.5
Corners4.194.668.9
Fouls11.111.422.5

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
SassuoloL, L, L, D, L
FiorentinaD, L, L, L, D
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendSASFIO
Over 2.5 goals3/54/5
Both teams scored4/55/5
Clean sheets0/50/5
Failed to score1/50/5
Head-to-head · last 6
2
SAS wins
1
Draws
3
FIO wins
  • DFiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo2026-04-26 · Serie A0 gls
  • WSassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina2025-12-06 · Serie A4 gls
  • LFiorentina 5–1 Sassuolo2024-04-29 · Serie A6 gls
  • WSassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina2024-01-06 · Serie A1 gls
  • LSassuolo 1–3 Fiorentina2023-06-02 · Serie A4 gls
3.0goals per meeting4/6with both teams scoring4/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

  • Forecast mild (11-12C), partly cloudy, 20-40% chance of drizzle; no source flags disruptive conditions
Form
Sassuolo LLLDLL in the league — hammered 2-6 at home by Lazio after a red card — scoring in each of their last four but leaking heavily; Fiorentina DLLDLD, just a 2-2 home draw with Atalanta, one league win all season with two defeats in their last three.
History
All 24 competitive meetings between these two have been Serie A league games (no cup/neutral meetings), and recent ones are tight and high-scoring: Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo (Apr 2026, HT 0-0), Sassuolo 3-1 Fiorentina (Dec 2025, HT 2-1), Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo (Apr 2024, HT 1-0), Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina (Jan 2024, HT 1-0), Sassuolo 1-3 Fiorentina (Jun 2023) and Fiorentina 2-1 Sassuolo (Jan 2023). Overall near-equal: Sassuolo 8 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses. Stature: Fiorentina are the traditionally bi…
The competition
Serie A 2026/27, ordinary league round (matchday 10) — no cup or two-leg context. Both sides are in the bottom half and under pressure: Sassuolo sit 15th on 8 points from 9 games (2W-2D-5L, 14-22) after five straight league games without a win, while Fiorentina are 18th in the relegation zone on 5 points (1W-2D-6L, 11-21) and winless in six league outings, having just drawn 2-2 with Atalanta. This is a genuine relegation six-pointer: the visitors need points urgently to climb out of the drop zo…

Team news

Sassuolo
  • Kristian Thorstvedt — out (mid)
  • Ismael Kone — out (mid)
  • Fedde Leysen — out (def)
  • Daniel Boloca — out (mid)
  • Yeferson Paz — out (def)
  • Edoardo Pieragnolo — doubtful (def)
Fiorentina
  • Marin Pongracic — out (def)
  • Luca Ranieri — doubtful (def)
  • Arthur Atta — out (mid)
  • Fabiano Parisi — out (def)

Italian Serie A table and leaders

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Inter38—87
2Napoli38—76
3Roma38—73
4Como38—71
5Milan38—70
6Juventus38—69

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Lautaro MartínezInter17 goals
  2. 2Anastasios DouvikasComo14 goals
  3. 3Doyell MalenRoma14 goals
  4. 4Marcus ThuramInter13 goals
  5. 5Nico PazComo12 goals

Scorers: matchcalendar/FBref final 2025-26 list; assists: FBref season summary; clean sheets: FBref/StatMuse 2025-26 keeper table.

More tips this week

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction?

We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Sassuolo 34%, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 40%.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Our tip is Full time · Over 1.5 Goals at 1.19.

What time does Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kick off?

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kicks off at Mon 17:30 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Reported absences: Kristian Thorstvedt (out), Ismael Kone (out), Fedde Leysen (out), Daniel Boloca (out), Yeferson Paz (out), Edoardo Pieragnolo (doubtful), Marin Pongracic (out), Luca Ranieri (doubtful), Arthur Atta (out), Fabiano Parisi (out).

What happened the last time Sassuolo vs Fiorentina met?

Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo (2026-04-26 · Serie A). Over their last 6 meetings it is 2 wins for Sassuolo, 1 draw and 3 for Fiorentina.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.