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Italian Serie A

Inter vs Fiorentina prediction, tips and odds

Serie A's best attack, Inter, host 18th-placed Fiorentina without captain and top scorer Lautaro Martínez, with the visitors conceding 17 in 7 and no clean sheet all season.
  • goals fest
  • both score
  • one sided
  • high ceiling
  • weakened side
  • league
  • Inter: normal
  • Fiorentina: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

Inter
1st · 19 pts
FormW, W, L, W, D

Lautaro Martínez (out), Benjamin Pavard (out), John Stones (out), Curtis Jones (out), Luis Henrique (out)

Fiorentina
18th · 4 pts
FormL, L, D, W, L

Luca Ranieri (out), Arthur Atta (out), Fabiano Parisi (out), Riccardo Sottil (out)

Our prediction
2–03.1 goals projected
INT 67%Draw 19%FIO 14%
goals per meeting
2.5goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
2/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
4/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
1–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Inter come throughOur pickInter
    1.38
  • Fiorentina keep it closeOur pickFiorentina starts 4 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
INT 67%Draw 19%FIO 14%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 2–011%
  • 2–110%
  • 1–010%
Projected goals
3.1
Likeliest at half time
1–024%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Inter against Fiorentina
StatINTFIOTotal
Goals2.230.93.1
Expected goals (xG)1.751.533.3
Fouls10.411.321.7

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
InterW, W, L, W, D
FiorentinaL, L, D, W, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendINTFIO
Over 2.5 goals4/54/5
Both teams scored3/54/5
Clean sheets2/50/5
Failed to score0/51/5
Head-to-head · last 6
3
INT wins
2
Draws
1
FIO wins
  • DInter 0–0 Fiorentina2026-05-17 · Serie A0 gls
  • DFiorentina 1–1 Inter2026-03-22 · Serie A2 gls
  • WInter 3–0 Fiorentina2025-10-29 · Serie A3 gls
  • WInter 2–1 Fiorentina2025-02-10 · Serie A3 gls
  • LFiorentina 3–0 Inter2025-02-06 · Serie A3 gls
2.5goals per meeting2/6with both teams scoring4/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Inter WWWDW in Serie A — unbeaten, 21 goals in 7 (3-1 Bologna, 3-0 Parma, 2-2 Roma); Fiorentina 18th, L L D W L (1-3 Como, 1-2 Genoa, 1-1 Napoli, 4-2 Venezia), conceding 17 in 7.
History
Inter and Fiorentina are a long-standing Serie A pairing (175 league meetings before this fixture, Inter 74W-55D-46L), with Inter clearly the bigger club — reigning champions and top of the table (19 pts, 1st) here, while Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points with a poor start. Recent league meetings have been mixed: Inter won 3-0 at San Siro (Oct 2025) and 2-1 at home (Feb 2025), Fiorentina beat Inter 3-0 in Florence (Feb 2025), and the last two are draws — 1-1 in Florence (Mar 2026) and, per StatAr…
The competition
Italian Serie A 2026/27 (national top flight, leading senior competition), ordinary league round — Matchday 8 of 38. Inter are defending champions and top the table on 19 pts from 7 (6W-1D, GF 21/GA 9, best attack), level with Lazio on points; they come in off a Champions League midweek (Wed 21 Oct 1-0 v Shakhtar, Bastoni red card) so some rotation risk, with Venezia and AC Milan up next in the league. Fiorentina are 18th on 4 pts (1W-1D-5L, GF 8/GA 17), in the relegation zone, and need points…

Team news

Inter
  • Lautaro Martínez — out (fwd)
  • Benjamin Pavard — out (def)
  • John Stones — out (def)
  • Curtis Jones — out (mid)
  • Luis Henrique — out (mid)
Fiorentina
  • Luca Ranieri — out (def)
  • Arthur Atta — out (mid)
  • Fabiano Parisi — out (def)
  • Riccardo Sottil — out (fwd)

Italian Serie A table and leaders

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Inter7—19
2Lazio7—19
18Fiorentina7—4

as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Antonio RaimondoFrosinone7 goals
  2. 2Gustavo VarelaMonza7 goals

topscorersfootball.com (23 Oct 2026), soccernews.com (22 Oct 2026), soccerstats.com club clean sheets. Partial — only the rows stated.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Inter vs Fiorentina prediction?

We project 2–0. Our model gives Inter 67%, the draw 19% and Fiorentina 14%.

What is the best bet for Inter vs Fiorentina?

Our tip is Full time result · Inter at 1.38. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?

Inter vs Fiorentina kicks off at Sun 11:30 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for Inter vs Fiorentina?

Reported absences: Lautaro Martínez (out), Benjamin Pavard (out), John Stones (out), Curtis Jones (out), Luis Henrique (out), Luca Ranieri (out), Arthur Atta (out), Fabiano Parisi (out), Riccardo Sottil (out).

What happened the last time Inter vs Fiorentina met?

Inter 0–0 Fiorentina (2026-05-17 · Serie A). Over their last 6 meetings it is 3 wins for Inter, 2 draws and 1 for Fiorentina.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.