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Italian Serie A

Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction, tips and odds

Unbeaten leaders Lazio, chasing a fifth straight away win, visit a Sassuolo side winless in four and missing keeper Muric, with Gudmundsson also out for Lazio
  • both score
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • one sided
  • league
  • Sassuolo: high
  • Lazio: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

Sassuolo
14th · 8 pts
FormL, L, D, L, D

Fedde Leysen (out), Jay Idzes (out), Ismaël Koné (out), Boloca (out), Arijanet Muric (doubtful)

Lazio
1st · 22 pts
FormW, W, W, W, W

Nicolò Rovella (out), Albert Gudmundsson (out), Adam Marusic (out), Gustav Isaksen (doubtful)

Our prediction
1–12.9 goals projected
SAS 27%Draw 24%LAZ 49%
goals per meeting
2.2goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
3/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Lazio avoid defeatOur pickLazio starts 1 goal ahead
    1.16
  • Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 Goals
    Price hidden until revealed
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How the model sees it

Result probability
SAS 27%Draw 24%LAZ 49%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–111%
  • 1–29%
  • 0–19%
Projected goals
2.9
Likeliest at half time
0–027%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Sassuolo against Lazio
StatSASLAZTotal
Goals1.21.672.9
Expected goals (xG)1.511.463.0
Shots on target5.445.3410.8
Corners4.855.4910.3
Fouls10.511.622.1

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
SassuoloL, L, D, L, D
LazioW, W, W, W, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendSASLAZ
Over 2.5 goals3/54/5
Both teams scored4/53/5
Clean sheets0/52/5
Failed to score1/50/5
Head-to-head · last 6
2
SAS wins
1
Draws
3
LAZ wins
  • LLazio 2–1 Sassuolo2026-03-09 · Serie A3 gls
  • WSassuolo 1–0 Lazio2025-09-14 · Serie A1 gls
  • DLazio 1–1 Sassuolo2024-05-26 · Serie A2 gls
  • LSassuolo 0–2 Lazio2023-10-21 · Serie A2 gls
  • LLazio 2–0 Sassuolo2023-05-03 · Serie A2 gls
2.2goals per meeting3/6with both teams scoring2/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Lazio WWWWW (3-0 at Juventus, 2-1 v Parma), 16-5 season, scoring in every recent win; Sassuolo LLDLD — 0-2 at Como, 2-4 at Frosinone, 1-1 v Milan — leaking goals but scoring in most games.
History
Both are Serie A regulars, but the stature gap is clear: Lazio sit 2nd and unbeaten (7 wins in 8) in 2026-27 while Sassuolo are 14th with 8 points from 8, so the "favourite" tag reflects a big club flying against a smaller one struggling. Recent league meetings: Lazio won 2-1 at home (Mar 2026, HT 1-1), Sassuolo won 1-0 at home (Sep 2025, HT 0-0), Lazio won 2-0 at Sassuolo (Oct 2023, HT 0-2), Lazio 1-1 Sassuolo (May 2024, HT 0-0), Lazio 2-0 Sassuolo (May 2023, HT 1-0). Lazio have lost only once…
The competition
Italian Serie A 2026-27, national top flight, Matchweek 9 (ordinary league round). Lazio are top on 22 pts from 8 (7W 1D 0L, 16-5) after beating Parma 2-1 on 24 Oct, three clear of Inter (who have a game in hand) — a title-race start with full motivation but heavy rotation risk. Sassuolo sit 14th on 8 pts (2W 2D 4L, 12-16), four points above the drop zone, having lost three of their last four — playing for survival points.

Team news

Sassuolo
  • Fedde Leysen — out (def)
  • Jay Idzes — out (def)
  • Ismaël Koné — out (mid)
  • Boloca — out (mid)
  • Arijanet Muric — doubtful (gk)
Lazio
  • Nicolò Rovella — out (mid)
  • Albert Gudmundsson — out (fwd)
  • Adam Marusic — out (def)
  • Gustav Isaksen — doubtful (fwd)

Italian Serie A table

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Lazio8—22
2Inter8—22
3Roma8—18
4AC Milan8—18
5Como8—17
6Frosinone8—14

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Sassuolo 27%, the draw 24% and Lazio 49%.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Lazio?

Our tip is Lazio starts 1 goal ahead at 1.16.

What time does Sassuolo vs Lazio kick off?

Sassuolo vs Lazio kicks off at Tue 17:30 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for Sassuolo vs Lazio?

Reported absences: Fedde Leysen (out), Jay Idzes (out), Ismaël Koné (out), Boloca (out), Arijanet Muric (doubtful), Nicolò Rovella (out), Albert Gudmundsson (out), Adam Marusic (out), Gustav Isaksen (doubtful).

What happened the last time Sassuolo vs Lazio met?

Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo (2026-03-09 · Serie A). Over their last 6 meetings it is 2 wins for Sassuolo, 1 draw and 3 for Lazio.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.