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Italian Serie A

AC Milan vs Bologna prediction, tips and odds

Unbeaten Milan (5W-3D) host a Bologna side without key men Orsolini and Piccoli, four days before the Derby della Madonnina
  • one sided
  • weakened side
  • slow start
  • no strong shape
  • league
  • AC Milan: high
  • Bologna: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

AC Milan
5th · 70 pts
FormW, W, W, D

Adrien Rabiot (out), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (out), Matteo Gabbia (out), Alexis Saelemaekers (out), Samuel Chukwueze (out), M. Gila (out), Diego Moreira (out), Pietro Terracciano (doubtful)

Bologna
8th · 56 pts
FormW, L, W, D

Riccardo Orsolini (out), Roberto Piccoli (out)

Our prediction
1–02.4 goals projected
AC 54%Draw 26%BOL 20%
goals per meeting
2.3goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
1/4with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/4over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • AC Milan come throughOur pickAC Milan
    1.77
  • Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 Goals
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
AC 54%Draw 26%BOL 20%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–015%
  • 1–112%
  • 2–011%
Projected goals
2.4
Likeliest at half time
0–035%
Competition goals a game
2.43
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for AC Milan against Bologna
StatAC BOLTotal
GoalsLeague 1.211.550.812.4
Expected goals (xG)League 1.31.41.242.6
Corners4.263.858.1
Fouls11.712.524.1

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
AC MilanW, W, W, D
BolognaW, L, W, D
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendAC BOL
Over 2.5 goals2/42/4
Both teams scored2/43/4
Clean sheets2/41/4
Failed to score0/40/4
Head-to-head · last 4
3
AC wins
0
Draws
1
BOL wins
  • WBologna 0–3 AC Milan2026-02-03 · Serie A3 gls
  • WAC Milan 1–0 Bologna2025-09-14 · Serie A1 gls
  • LAC Milan 0–1 Bologna2025-05-14 · Coppa Italia final (neutral, Stadio Olimpico)1 gls
  • WAC Milan 3–1 Bologna2025-05-09 · Serie A4 gls
2.3goals per meeting1/4with both teams scoring2/4over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Milan unbeaten in Serie A (4-3-0, 18 pts): W2-0 at Udinese, W3-2 v Atalanta, D1-1 at Sassuolo, plus a 4-0 Europa League win in Salzburg; Bologna inconsistent (2-2-4, 8 pts): W2-0 at Cagliari, L1-3 v Inter, W2-1 at Lecce, D1-1 v Torino.
History
Standard Serie A pairing with a lopsided recent league record to Milan: Milan won the last league meeting 3-0 at Bologna (Feb 2026, HT 0-2) and 1-0 at home (Sep 2025), plus a 3-1 home league win in May 2025 (HT 0-0, all three Milan goals after the break). Bologna's only recent win over Milan was the May 2025 Coppa Italia final, 1-0 at neutral Stadio Olimpico (HT 0-0) — a cup final, so weak evidence for a league match. All-time FootyStats: 35 meetings, Milan 23 wins, 8 draws, Bologna 4, 64-28 go…
The competition
Serie A 2026-27, Italy's top flight, ordinary league round (matchweek 9) at San Siro on 28 Oct 2026. Milan are unbeaten in their opening eight games and sit 4th on 18 points (behind Inter and Lazio on 22, level with Roma on 18); Bologna are 13th on 8 points with just two wins in eight. Milan are chasing the title pack at the top; Bologna are in mid-table with an eye over their shoulder towards the bottom half, so both have real league motivation — not a dead rubber. Bologna also carry a Europea…

Team news

AC Milan
  • Adrien Rabiot — out (mid)
  • Ruben Loftus-Cheek — out (mid)
  • Matteo Gabbia — out (def)
  • Alexis Saelemaekers — out (def)
  • Samuel Chukwueze — out (fwd)
  • M. Gila — out (def)
  • Diego Moreira — out (unknown)
  • Pietro Terracciano — doubtful (gk)
Bologna
  • Riccardo Orsolini — out (fwd)
  • Roberto Piccoli — out (fwd)

Italian Serie A table and leaders

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Inter38—87
2Napoli38—76
3Roma38—73
4Como38—71
5Milan38—70
6Juventus38—69

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Lautaro MartínezInter17 goals
  2. 2Anastasios DouvikasComo14 goals
  3. 3Doyell MalenRoma14 goals
  4. 4Marcus ThuramInter13 goals
  5. 5Nico PazComo12 goals

Scorers: matchcalendar/FBref final 2025-26 list; assists: FBref season summary; clean sheets: FBref/StatMuse 2025-26 keeper table.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our AC Milan vs Bologna prediction?

We project 1–0. Our model gives AC Milan 54%, the draw 26% and Bologna 20%.

What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Bologna?

Our tip is Full time result · AC Milan at 1.77. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?

AC Milan vs Bologna kicks off at Wed 17:30 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for AC Milan vs Bologna?

Reported absences: Adrien Rabiot (out), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (out), Matteo Gabbia (out), Alexis Saelemaekers (out), Samuel Chukwueze (out), M. Gila (out), Diego Moreira (out), Pietro Terracciano (doubtful), Riccardo Orsolini (out), Roberto Piccoli (out).

What happened the last time AC Milan vs Bologna met?

Bologna 0–3 AC Milan (2026-02-03 · Serie A). Over their last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for AC Milan, 0 draws and 1 for Bologna.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.