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Spanish Copa del Rey

U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction, tips and odds

Ponferradina, a division above, take a heavily rotated XI to fourth-tier Llanera in a Copa del Rey first round staged on neutral artificial turf in Mieres
  • weakened side
  • rotation risk
  • high stakes
  • no strong shape
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • U.D Llanera: high
  • Ponferradina: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Spanish Copa del Rey

Our prediction

U.D Llanera
16th · 7 pts
FormL, L, W, D, W
Ponferradina
10th · 13 pts
FormD, D, L, W, D

Fede San Emeterio (out)

Our prediction
1–12.7 goals projected
UD 24%Draw 25%PON 51%
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Ponferradina come throughOur pickPonferradina
    1.69
  • U.D Llanera keep it closeOur pickU.D Llanera starts 3.5 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
UD 24%Draw 25%PON 51%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–112%
  • 0–111%
  • 1–210%
Projected goals
2.7
Likeliest at half time
0–030%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for U.D Llanera against Ponferradina
StatUD PONTotal
Goals1.041.622.7

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
U.D LlaneraL, L, W, D, W
PonferradinaD, D, L, W, D
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendUD PON
Over 2.5 goals4/50/5
Both teams scored5/52/5
Clean sheets0/52/5
Failed to score0/52/5

Match context

  • Forecast around 14°C at kickoff; ground is artificial turf (Hermanos Antuña)
Form
Llanera DLLWD (newest first: 1-3, 1-4, 4-2, 1-1, 2-1) — leaky, both teams scored in all five. Ponferradina DD LWD (0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1) — three winless, only 3 goals in 5 and none in their last two.
History
No verifiable prior meeting between U.D. Llanera and Ponferradina turned up: match pages (Goal, FOX, ESPN, AiScore, ValueStats) list this Copa del Rey tie at Llanera's Pepe Quimarán (a third-party report says it is being played at Hermanos Antuña, Mieres) as their only fixture, and no H2H record was published for the pair. They have mostly operated at different levels: Ponferradina are a former Segunda División club now in Primera Federación (10th, 13 pts from 9), Llanera a small Asturian side…
The competition
Spanish Copa del Rey 2026/27, FIRST round (single-leg knockout, 56 ties, 27–29 Oct 2026; winners reach round two on 2 Dec). Llanera (Segunda Federación Group 1, 16th of 18) host Ponferradina (Primera Federación Group 1, 10th of 20) — two divisions apart, so the visitor is a strong favourite. Ponferradina's coach Nafti is expected to rotate almost the whole XI (Vacas + Tounkara in midfield, first one off at half-time) and wants to progress "without extra time or penalties", a context pointing at…

Team news

U.D Llanera

No absences reported.

Ponferradina
  • Fede San Emeterio — out (mid)

Spanish Copa del Rey table

Spanish Copa del Rey standings
#ClubPLGDPts
16Llanera (Segunda Federación Gr.1)8—7
10Ponferradina (Primera Federación Gr.1)9—13
1Lugo (Primera Federación Gr.1)9—22
4Cacereño (Primera Federación Gr.1)9—15
5Mirandés (Primera Federación Gr.1)9—14
6Pontevedra (Primera Federación Gr.1)9—14

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives U.D Llanera 24%, the draw 25% and Ponferradina 51%.

What is the best bet for U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina?

Our tip is Full time result · Ponferradina at 1.69. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina kick off?

U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina kicks off at Tue 19:00 in the Spanish Copa del Rey.

Who is out for U.D Llanera vs Ponferradina?

Reported absences: Fede San Emeterio (out).

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.