AC Milan vs Ferencvaros prediction, tips and odds
- high ceiling
- both score
- high stakes
- weakened side
- rotation risk
- league
- AC Milan: high
- Ferencvaros: normal
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Mike Maignan (out), Fikayo Tomori (out), Matteo Gabbia (out), Alexis Saelemaekers (out), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (out), Samuel Chukwueze (out), Pietro Terracciano (out), Santiago Giménez (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- likeliest half-time score
- 1–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- AC Milan come throughOur pickAC Milan1.38
- Goals keep comingOur pickOver 1.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- Projected goals
- 3.3
- Likeliest at half time
- 1–024%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | AC | FER | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 2.37 | 0.95 | 3.3 |
| Shots | 12.9 | 11.7 | 24.6 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 4.34 | 4.39 | 8.7 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | AC | FER |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 2/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 0/5 |
Match context
- Form
- Milan WLWWL in all competitions (3-1 derby win over Inter, 2-4 home loss to Bologna, 2-0 at Udinese, 0-3 at Bournemouth, 3-2 v Atalanta) — goals in every game, but leaky. Ferencvaros WWWDW unbeaten, scoring 14 in five, including 5-0 over MTK and 2-0 over Paks.
- History
- No meaningful history. Multiple previews (Football Whispers, Betfair, SportsDunia) state this is the first competitive meeting between AC Milan and Ferencvaros, and no verifiable prior meeting was found (searches of Ferencvaros' records against Italian clubs and lists of their European campaigns — 1995/96 CL group with Real Madrid, Ajax, Grasshoppers; 2004/05 UEFA Cup with Feyenoord, Schalke, Basel, Hearts — show no Milan fixture). Stature gap is large: Milan are seven-time European champions a…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026-27 league phase, matchday 4 of 8 — an ordinary single-leg round, no return leg. Milan are rebuilding in Europe: they opened with a 0-2 home loss to Benfica, then won 4-0 at Salzburg before a 0-3 loss at Bournemouth, so they need points to climb from mid-table and secure a top-8 bye / at least a play-off spot. Ferencvaros are the form side of the phase so far — 3 wins from 3 (Celtic 1-3, Plzen 2-1, Torreense 4-1), 9 goals scored, sat high in the table on 9 points — so thi…
Team news
- Mike Maignan — out (gk)
- Fikayo Tomori — out (def)
- Matteo Gabbia — out (def)
- Alexis Saelemaekers — out (mid)
- Ruben Loftus-Cheek — out (mid)
- Samuel Chukwueze — out (fwd)
- Pietro Terracciano — out (gk)
- Santiago Giménez — out (fwd)
- Matus Bero — out (mid)
- Bence Otvos — out (mid)
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon · Full time result · Real Sociedad1.73
- PFC Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystock · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.16
Frequently asked questions
What is our AC Milan vs Ferencvaros prediction?
We project 2–0. The bookmakers' own prices imply AC Milan 72%, the draw 18% and Ferencvaros 10%.
What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Ferencvaros?
Our tip is Full time result · AC Milan at 1.38. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does AC Milan vs Ferencvaros kick off?
AC Milan vs Ferencvaros kicks off at Thu 17:45 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for AC Milan vs Ferencvaros?
Reported absences: Mike Maignan (out), Fikayo Tomori (out), Matteo Gabbia (out), Alexis Saelemaekers (out), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (out), Samuel Chukwueze (out), Pietro Terracciano (out), Santiago Giménez (out), Matus Bero (out), Bence Otvos (out).
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.