Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction, tips and odds
- goals fest
- weakened side
- high stakes
- one sided
- league
- Real Sociedad: high
- Lyon: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Arsen Zakharyan (out), Álvaro Odriozola (out), Luken Beitia (out)
Lois Openda (out), Pavel Šulc (out), Tyler Morton (out), Mohamed Ouédraogo (out), Nicolas Tagliafico (out), Steeve Kango (out), Moussa Niakhaté (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 1.6goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 1/5with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 0/5over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Real Sociedad come throughOur pickReal Sociedad · Draw no bet1.73
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–012%
- 2–011%
- 1–111%
- Projected goals
- 2.8
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–029%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | REA | LYO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 1.86 | 0.91 | 2.8 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.4 | 1.46 | 1.59 | 3.0 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 13.4 | 26.4 |
| Shots on target | 5.09 | 5.2 | 10.3 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 5.8 | 4.36 | 10.2 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | REA | LYO |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 4/5 | 2/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 1/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 2/5 |
- WReal Sociedad 2–0 Lyon2013-08-28 · UEFA Champions League play-off round, 2nd leg2 gls
- WLyon 0–2 Real Sociedad2013-08-20 · UEFA Champions League play-off round, 1st leg2 gls
- DLyon 1–1 Real Sociedad2012-07-21 · Club friendly2 gls
- LLyon 1–0 Real Sociedad2004-03-09 · UEFA Champions League round of 16, 2nd leg1 gls
- LReal Sociedad 0–1 Lyon2004-02-25 · UEFA Champions League round of 16, 1st leg1 gls
Match context
- Forecast for San Sebastián 5 Nov: sunny, ~17°C high, light winds, 5% rain chance — no adverse conditions flagged.
- Form
- Real Sociedad LWWWD across all comps (6-0 at Lillestrøm, 5-2 at Málaga, 2-1 v Levante, 1-1 at Union SG, 3-2 v Deportivo) — high-scoring; Lyon WLWLW (2-0 v Angers, 0-2 at PSG, 0-3 at Hoffenheim, 2-1 v Nice, 3-2 v Crystal Palace) — leaky away, shut out in their two losses.
- History
- No meaningful recent history: the last competitive meeting was in August 2013, when Real Sociedad beat Lyon 2-0 home and away (4-0 agg.) in the Champions League play-off round. Before that, Lyon won both legs of a 2003-04 CL round of 16 tie, 1-0 in San Sebastián and 1-0 at the Gerland. The other meeting is a 2012 pre-season friendly (Lyon 1-1 Real Sociedad). Both are established top-league clubs of similar stature; Elo before this game rates Lyon slightly higher (1712 vs 1651), so Sociedad's fa…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026/27 league phase (single-table, 8 rounds; Matchday 4 window). Only 2 of Lyon's 8 UEL games appear in the on-file table snapshot, which already shows Lyon 1st on P8 Pts21 GF18/GA5 — i.e. Lyon are the phase's leading side, so this is a top-of-table clash. Real Sociedad are not in the on-file top-24 snapshot but are unbeaten in the league phase so far in 2026/27 (Lillestrøm 0-6 away, Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 away, 1-2 home loss to Bournemouth on 17 Sep) and sit 5th in La Lig…
Team news
- Arsen Zakharyan — out (mid)
- Álvaro Odriozola — out (def)
- Luken Beitia — out (unknown)
- Lois Openda — out (fwd)
- Pavel Šulc — out (mid)
- Tyler Morton — out (mid)
- Mohamed Ouédraogo — out (mid)
- Nicolas Tagliafico — out (def)
- Steeve Kango — out (def)
- Moussa Niakhaté — out (def)
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- AC Milan vs Ferencvaros · Full time result · AC Milan1.38
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- PFC Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystock · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.16
Frequently asked questions
What is our Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction?
We project 1–0. The bookmakers' own prices imply Real Sociedad 57%, the draw 23% and Lyon 20%.
What is the best bet for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our tip is Full time result · Real Sociedad at 1.73. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Real Sociedad vs Lyon kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Lyon kicks off at Thu 17:45 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Reported absences: Arsen Zakharyan (out), Álvaro Odriozola (out), Luken Beitia (out), Lois Openda (out), Pavel Šulc (out), Tyler Morton (out), Mohamed Ouédraogo (out), Nicolas Tagliafico (out), Steeve Kango (out), Moussa Niakhaté (out).
What happened the last time Real Sociedad vs Lyon met?
Real Sociedad 2–0 Lyon (2013-08-28 · UEFA Champions League play-off round, 2nd leg). Over their last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Real Sociedad, 1 draw and 2 for Lyon.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.