Az Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction, tips and odds
- league
- Az Alkmaar: high
- Juventus: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Weston McKennie (doubtful), Manuel Locatelli (out), Khephren Thuram (out), Kenan Yildiz (out), Francisco Conceicao (out), Nicolas Gonzalez (out), Kamil Grabara (out), Zeki Celik (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 Goals1.06
- Az Alkmaar keep it closeOur pickAz Alkmaar starts 2 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–113%
- 0–112%
- 1–010%
- Projected goals
- 2.3
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–035%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | AZ | JUV | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 1.05 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.4 | 2.67 | 1.28 | 4.0 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 12.8 | 25.5 |
| Shots on target | 4.37 | 4.15 | 8.5 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 4.92 | 5.35 | 10.3 |
| Fouls | 11.7 | 12.2 | 23.9 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | AZ | JUV |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 | 2/5 |
| Both teams scored | 2/5 | 2/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 2/5 |
| Failed to score | 2/5 | 1/5 |
Match context
- Cold, dry, breezy in Alkmaar on 5 Nov: ~5-9C, no rain forecast, E wind 10-20 mph; nothing flagged as material.
- Form
- AZ L L W D L: beaten 1-0 at Ajax and 0-2 at home by Twente, but 4-0 at Ararat-Armenia in Europe; Juve W L W D L: 2-0 v Napoli after 0-2 at Genoa, 2-2 with Rennes after 1-2 win at Celta.
- History
- First-ever meeting: AZ Alkmaar and Juventus have never faced each other in European competition (Juventus's own preview calls AZ a "new opponent"), and no source found any prior senior meeting of any kind, so there is no meaningful head-to-head history to weigh. Stature is clearly unequal: Juventus are a Serie A giant (7th in Serie A, 7th in the Europa League phase with 7 pts and 9 goals in 3 games) while AZ are a strong Eredivisie/European cup side (5th in the Eredivisie, 10th in the EL phase)…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026-27 league phase, Matchday 4 (of 8) — one-off league-format round, not a knockout leg; a top-eight finish means direct last-16 entry. Both sides are well placed: Juventus have 7 pts from 3 (2W 1D, 9 goals scored, unbeaten), AZ have 6 pts from 3 (2W 1L — beat Hapoel Beer-Sheva 2-1 and Ararat-Armenia 0-4 away, lost 1-0 at Sunderland). The on-file 8-game table shows neither club in a desperate spot, but this is a direct top-eight clash worth real separation. AZ are unbeaten…
Team news
- Kees Smit — out (mid)
- Jizz Hornkamp — out (fwd)
- Weston McKennie — doubtful (mid)
- Manuel Locatelli — out (mid)
- Khephren Thuram — out (mid)
- Kenan Yildiz — out (fwd)
- Francisco Conceicao — out (fwd)
- Nicolas Gonzalez — out (fwd)
- Kamil Grabara — out (gk)
- Zeki Celik — out (def)
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- AC Milan vs Ferencvaros · Full time result · AC Milan1.38
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon · Full time result · Real Sociedad1.73
Frequently asked questions
What is our Az Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction?
We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Az Alkmaar 27%, the draw 26% and Juventus 47%.
What is the best bet for Az Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Our tip is Full time · Under 5.5 Goals at 1.06.
What time does Az Alkmaar vs Juventus kick off?
Az Alkmaar vs Juventus kicks off at Thu 20:00 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for Az Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Reported absences: Weston McKennie (doubtful), Manuel Locatelli (out), Khephren Thuram (out), Kenan Yildiz (out), Francisco Conceicao (out), Nicolas Gonzalez (out), Kamil Grabara (out), Zeki Celik (out), Kees Smit (out), Jizz Hornkamp (out).
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.