Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction, tips and odds
- goals fest
- high ceiling
- one sided
- weakened side
- league
- Benfica: normal
- Lech Poznan: normal
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Clément Lenglet (out), Leandro Barreiro (out), Enzo Barrenechea (doubtful), Jaden Umeh (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 5.0goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 1/2with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/2over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 1–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Benfica come throughOur pickBenfica1.18
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 2.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 2–015%
- 3–015%
- 4–011%
- Projected goals
- 3.4
- Likeliest at half time
- 1–029%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | BEN | LEC | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 2.93 | 0.43 | 3.4 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.4 | 1.66 | 1.39 | 3.0 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 5.45 | 4.29 | 9.7 |
| Fouls | 13.1 | 13.0 | 26.1 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | BEN | LEC |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 4/5 | 4/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 0/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 1/5 |
- WBenfica 4–0 Lech Poznan2020-12-03 · UEFA Europa League (group stage, MD5)4 gls
- WLech Poznan 2–4 Benfica2020-10-22 · UEFA Europa League (group stage, MD1)6 gls
Match context
- Form
- Benfica WWWWW (15 scored, 4 conceded in last 5; three 4-goal hauls, one clean sheet); Lech Poznań WLWWL across all comps — 3-1 v Wisła, cup loss at Siarka, 2-1 win at Legia, 1-1 v Sunderland, 0-4 v Leverkusen — but W-W-W-W-W in the league, scoring heavily at home.
- History
- Only two competitive meetings on record, both in the 2020/21 Europa League group stage: Lech Poznan 2-4 Benfica (22 Oct 2020, Poznan) and Benfica 4-0 Lech Poznan (3 Dec 2020, Lisbon). Benfica won both, 8-2 on aggregate; both were high-scoring with first-half goals (1-2 and 1-0 at the break). No meeting since 2020, so the sample is thin and stale, but it points the same way as stature: Benfica are a Champions-League-calibre Portuguese giant (ELO ~2191, 9/9 pts in the 2026/27 league phase) while…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026/27 league phase (36 clubs, single table, 8 matchdays), Matchday 4 of 8 at Estádio da Luz — the halfway point of the phase, not a knockout leg. Benfica sit 1st with a perfect record (P3, 9 pts, 10 GF/2 GA) and are chasing a top-8 finish and direct round-of-16 place; Lech Poznań are 32nd of 36 (P3, 1 pt, 0W 1D 2L, 1 GF/9 GA) and in the elimination zone, so every remaining point is about survival in the competition. Nothing dead for either side: Benfica need wins to stay in…
Team news
- Clément Lenglet — out (def)
- Leandro Barreiro — out (mid)
- Enzo Barrenechea — doubtful (mid)
- Jaden Umeh — out (fwd)
- Ali Gholizadeh — out (fwd)
- Allahyar Sayyadmanesh — out (fwd)
- João Moutinho — out (def)
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- AC Milan vs Ferencvaros · Full time result · AC Milan1.38
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon · Full time result · Real Sociedad1.73
Frequently asked questions
What is our Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction?
We project 2–0. The bookmakers' own prices imply Benfica 84%, the draw 11% and Lech Poznan 5%.
What is the best bet for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our tip is Full time result · Benfica at 1.18.
What time does Benfica vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Benfica vs Lech Poznan kicks off at Thu 20:00 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Reported absences: Clément Lenglet (out), Leandro Barreiro (out), Enzo Barrenechea (doubtful), Jaden Umeh (out), Ali Gholizadeh (out), Allahyar Sayyadmanesh (out), João Moutinho (out).
What happened the last time Benfica vs Lech Poznan met?
Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan (2020-12-03 · UEFA Europa League (group stage, MD5)). Over their last 2 meetings it is 2 wins for Benfica, 0 draws and 0 for Lech Poznan.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.