Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction, tips and odds
- one sided
- high stakes
- goals fest
- early goal
- league
- Leverkusen: normal
- Marseille: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Loïc Badé (out), Moussa Diaby (out), Nathan Tella (out), Martin Terrier (out), Eliesse Ben Seghir (out), Guéla Doué (out), Christian Kofane (out), Kennet Eichhorn (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 4.0goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 2/2with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/2over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 1–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Leverkusen come throughOur pickLeverkusen1.38
- Marseille keep it closeOur pickMarseille starts 3.5 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 2–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–08%
- Projected goals
- 3.4
- Likeliest at half time
- 1–024%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | LEV | MAR | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 2.48 | 0.93 | 3.4 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.4 | 1.83 | 1.47 | 3.3 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 5.31 | 4.38 | 9.7 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | LEV | MAR |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 2/5 |
| Both teams scored | 3/5 | 2/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 2/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 1/5 |
- WMarseille 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen2023-08-02 · Club Friendly (pre-season)3 gls
- LMarseille 4–1 Bayer Leverkusen2014-07-19 · Club Friendly (pre-season)5 gls
Match context
- Form
- Leverkusen WLLLW-ish chaos: 5-2 Nürnberg (HT 2-2), 1-2 DFB Pokal loss, 0-3 Hoffenheim, 2-0 OFI, 2-1 Freiburg, then 2-4 v Stuttgart (HT 1-2) — plenty of goals both ways. Marseille WLWWW: only 1-0 loss at Sturm Graz (HT 0-1) interrupting four league wins, 2-0 Toulouse, 4-3 Le Havr…
- History
- No meaningful competitive history: Leverkusen and Marseille have never met in a competitive UEFA match. The only two recorded meetings are pre-season friendlies — Marseille 4-1 Leverkusen (19 Jul 2014, Seekirchen, Austria) and Marseille 1-2 Leverkusen (2 Aug 2023 at the Vélodrome, Tah and Amiri giving B04 a 2-0 half-time lead). Stature is not close: Leverkusen are the far stronger side right now (ELO ~2130 vs ~1987; top of the 2026-27 EL league phase with three wins from three), while Marseille…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026/27, league phase (36 teams, 8 rounds) — Matchday 4 of 8, an ordinary single-leg league-phase round, halfway point of the phase. Leverkusen are 2nd on 9 pts after three wins with 8 scored and 0 conceded (3-0 W over Celje, 4-0 at Lech Poznań, 2-0 at OFI), chasing a top-8 finish and direct round-of-16 entry. Marseille are 34th of 36 on 0 pts, having lost all three European matches (1-4 at Beşiktaş, 0-1 v Olympiacos, 0-1 at Sturm Graz), scoring just 1; they need points urgen…
Team news
- Loïc Badé — out (def)
- Moussa Diaby — out (fwd)
- Nathan Tella — out (fwd)
- Martin Terrier — out (fwd)
- Eliesse Ben Seghir — out (mid)
- Guéla Doué — out (def)
- Christian Kofane — out (fwd)
- Kennet Eichhorn — out (unknown)
- Derek Cornelius — out (def)
- Emerson Palmieri — doubtful (def)
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- AC Milan vs Ferencvaros · Full time result · AC Milan1.38
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon · Full time result · Real Sociedad1.73
Frequently asked questions
What is our Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction?
We project 2–0. The bookmakers' own prices imply Leverkusen 72%, the draw 16% and Marseille 12%.
What is the best bet for Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our tip is Full time result · Leverkusen at 1.38. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Leverkusen vs Marseille kick off?
Leverkusen vs Marseille kicks off at Thu 20:00 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Reported absences: Loïc Badé (out), Moussa Diaby (out), Nathan Tella (out), Martin Terrier (out), Eliesse Ben Seghir (out), Guéla Doué (out), Christian Kofane (out), Kennet Eichhorn (out), Derek Cornelius (out), Emerson Palmieri (doubtful).
What happened the last time Leverkusen vs Marseille met?
Marseille 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen (2023-08-02 · Club Friendly (pre-season)). Over their last 2 meetings it is 1 wins for Leverkusen, 0 draws and 1 for Marseille.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.