Liverpool vs Brighton prediction, tips and odds
- high stakes
- open game
- no strong shape
- league
- Liverpool: high
- Brighton: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- English Premier League
- Referee
- Sam Barrott
- 3.6 cards a game
Our prediction
Dominik Szoboszlai (out), Jeremie Frimpong (out), Hugo Ekitike (out), Victor Munoz (doubtful)
Kaoru Mitoma (out), Yankuba Minteh (doubtful), Mats Wieffer (out), Pascal Struijk (doubtful), Evan Ferguson (out), Femi Azeez (out)
- goals per meeting
- 3.3goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 4/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 5/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Brighton keep it closeOur pickBrighton starts 2 goals ahead1.13
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 3.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
- Projected goals
- 3.1
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–024%
| Stat | LIV | BRI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 | 1.63 | 3.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.58 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 4.97 | 4.9 | 9.9 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | LIV | BRI |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2/3 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 1/3 | 0/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/3 | 5/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/3 | 1/5 |
- WLiverpool 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion2025-12-13 · Premier League2 gls
- LBrighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Liverpool2026-03-21 · Premier League3 gls
- WLiverpool 3–0 Brighton & Hove Albion2026-02-14 · FA Cup (4th Round)3 gls
- LBrighton & Hove Albion 3–2 Liverpool2025-05-19 · Premier League5 gls
- WLiverpool 2–1 Brighton & Hove Albion2024-11-02 · Premier League3 gls
Match context
- Storm Boelo: Met Office yellow wind warning on Merseyside until 9pm Sunday; gusts to 60mph, heavy rain around kickoff.
- Form
- Liverpool W2 L1 in last three PL (2-1 at Brentford, 0-3 home v Man City, 1-0 at Bournemouth), low-scoring, strong at half-time defensively; Brighton W4 D1 in last five including 5-0 v Palace and 3-0 v Arsenal, but blanked 0-0 at Jablonec on 22 Oct.
- History
- Liverpool are the far bigger club (2024-25 champions) but this is a genuinely awkward recent matchup. Last six meetings (all Premier League unless noted): Liverpool 2-0 Brighton (13 Dec 2025, Anfield), Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (21 Mar 2026, Amex), Liverpool 3-0 Brighton (14 Feb 2026, FA Cup R4 — cup, discount), Brighton 3-2 Liverpool (19 May 2025), Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (2 Nov 2024), Brighton 2-2 Liverpool (8 Oct 2023). Brighton have won 2 of the last 4 league meetings at the Amex and pushed Liv…
- The competition
- English Premier League 2026-27, matchweek 8 (top flight, full national division). Brighton are 3rd with 16 pts from 7 (5-1-1, 23-5 — the division's top scorers), chasing leaders Man City and Arsenal (21 pts). Liverpool are a disappointing 5th on 12 pts from 7 (3-3-1, GD +1), so this is a chance for them to close on the top four — genuine top-four/European-race stakes, not a dead rubber. Both played midweek European games (Liverpool in the Champions League, Brighton drawing 0-0 at Jablonec in th…
- Referee cards
- 3.6a game
- Liverpool cards
- 2.0a game
- Brighton cards
- 2.1a game
Team news
- Dominik Szoboszlai — out (mid)
- Jeremie Frimpong — out (def)
- Hugo Ekitike — out (fwd)
- Victor Munoz — doubtful (def)
- Kaoru Mitoma — out (fwd)
- Yankuba Minteh — doubtful (fwd)
- Mats Wieffer — out (mid)
- Pascal Struijk — doubtful (def)
- Evan Ferguson — out (fwd)
- Femi Azeez — out (fwd)
English Premier League table
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | — | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | — | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | — | 12 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 11 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
More tips this week
- Hull vs Brentford · Full time result · Brentford1.75
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.19
- Man Utd vs Bournemouth · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.22
- Sunderland vs Leeds · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.11
- Monterrey vs Guadalajara · Guadalajara starts 1 goal ahead1.32
- Colorado vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.28
Frequently asked questions
What is our Liverpool vs Brighton prediction?
We project 1–1. Our model gives Liverpool 36%, the draw 24% and Brighton 40%.
What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Brighton?
Our tip is Brighton starts 2 goals ahead at 1.13.
What time does Liverpool vs Brighton kick off?
Liverpool vs Brighton kicks off at Sun 14:00 in the English Premier League.
Who is out for Liverpool vs Brighton?
Reported absences: Dominik Szoboszlai (out), Jeremie Frimpong (out), Hugo Ekitike (out), Victor Munoz (doubtful), Kaoru Mitoma (out), Yankuba Minteh (doubtful), Mats Wieffer (out), Pascal Struijk (doubtful), Evan Ferguson (out), Femi Azeez (out).
What happened the last time Liverpool vs Brighton met?
Liverpool 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion (2025-12-13 · Premier League). Over their last 6 meetings it is 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 draw and 2 for Brighton.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.