Sunderland vs Leeds prediction, tips and odds
- high stakes
- weakened side
- no strong shape
- open game
- league
- Sunderland: must win
- Leeds: normal
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- English Premier League
- Referee
- Stuart Attwell
- 4.9 cards a game
Our prediction
Kevin Danso (out), Dan Ballard (out), Thomas Meunier (out), Wilson Isidor (doubtful), Brian Brobbey (doubtful), Omar Alderete (doubtful)
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (doubtful), Noah Okafor (doubtful), Anton Stach (doubtful), Joe Rodon (out)
- goals per meeting
- 1.8goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 3/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 4.5 Goals1.11
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 1.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 0–114%
- 1–113%
- 0–012%
- Projected goals
- 2.1
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–039%
| Stat | SUN | LEE | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 | 1.17 | 2.1 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 | 1.54 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 4.17 | 4.1 | 8.3 |
| Cards | 2.59 | 2.31 | 4.9 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | SUN | LEE |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1/5 | 2/5 |
| Both teams scored | 2/5 | 5/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 0/5 |
| Failed to score | 2/5 | 0/5 |
- WLeeds United 0–1 Sunderland2026-03-03 · English Premier League1 gls
- DSunderland 1–1 Leeds United2025-12-28 · English Premier League2 gls
- LLeeds United 2–1 Sunderland2025-02-17 · English League Championship3 gls
- DSunderland 2–2 Leeds United2024-10-04 · English League Championship4 gls
- DLeeds United 0–0 Sunderland2024-04-09 · English League Championship0 gls
Match context
- Form
- Sunderland LLLDW in the league, one win in seven, 6 scored in 7 (0-2 Bournemouth, 0-2 Brighton, 3-5 Man City, 1-1 Brentford, 1-0 Fulham); Leeds DWDLD with one league defeat, 9 scored in 7 (1-1 Man Utd, 1-2 Arsenal, 4-1 Newcastle, 1-1 Brighton, 1-1 Brentford).
- History
- Near-identical stature, but in opposite form. Leeds (7th, 10 pts from 7) are the better side this season; Sunderland (20th, 4 pts) are struggling in the top flight despite being a historically comparable club. The last five league meetings are extremely tight: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Dec 2025), Leeds 0-1 Sunderland (Mar 2026), Leeds 2-1 Sunderland (Feb 2025, Championship), Sunderland 2-2 Leeds (Oct 2024, Championship), Leeds 0-0 Sunderland (Apr 2024, Championship). Sunderland unbeaten in the last…
- The competition
- English Premier League 2026/27, matchweek 8 (25 Oct 2026), ordinary league round at the Stadium of Light — no cup or two-leg context. Sunderland are bottom (20th, 4 pts from 7, 1W-1D-5L, GF 6 / GA 14) after five straight league defeats, so this is a survival-race fixture with real pressure on the hosts. Leeds are mid-table/upper-half (8th, 10 pts from 7, 2W-4D-1L) with only one league defeat; they are playing for a push toward the European places. Sunderland also carry Europa League congestion…
- Referee cards
- 4.9a game
- Sunderland cards
- 2.1a game
- Leeds cards
- 1.9a game
Team news
- Kevin Danso — out (def)
- Dan Ballard — out (def)
- Thomas Meunier — out (def)
- Wilson Isidor — doubtful (fwd)
- Brian Brobbey — doubtful (fwd)
- Omar Alderete — doubtful (def)
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin — doubtful (fwd)
- Noah Okafor — doubtful (fwd)
- Anton Stach — doubtful (mid)
- Joe Rodon — out (def)
English Premier League table
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | — | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | — | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | — | 12 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 11 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
More tips this week
- Hull vs Brentford · Full time result · Brentford1.75
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.19
- Liverpool vs Brighton · Brighton starts 1.5 goals ahead1.32
- Man Utd vs Bournemouth · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.22
- Monterrey vs Guadalajara · Guadalajara starts 1 goal ahead1.32
- Colorado vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.28
Frequently asked questions
What is our Sunderland vs Leeds prediction?
We project 0–1. Our model gives Sunderland 29%, the draw 30% and Leeds 41%.
What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our tip is Full time · Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11.
What time does Sunderland vs Leeds kick off?
Sunderland vs Leeds kicks off at Sun 16:30 in the English Premier League.
Who is out for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Reported absences: Kevin Danso (out), Dan Ballard (out), Thomas Meunier (out), Wilson Isidor (doubtful), Brian Brobbey (doubtful), Omar Alderete (doubtful), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (doubtful), Noah Okafor (doubtful), Anton Stach (doubtful), Joe Rodon (out).
What happened the last time Sunderland vs Leeds met?
Leeds United 0–1 Sunderland (2026-03-03 · English Premier League). Over their last 6 meetings it is 2 wins for Sunderland, 3 draws and 1 for Leeds.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.