Sturm Graz vs NK Celje prediction, tips and odds
- weakened side
- high stakes
- one sided
- rotation risk
- no strong shape
- league
- Sturm Graz: high
- NK Celje: must win
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
Our prediction
Otar Kiteishvili (out), Daniil Khudyakov (out), Seedy Jatta (out), Nelson Weiper (out), Gizo Mamageishvili (out), Filip Rozga (out), Emran Soglo (out), L. Grgic (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 3.5goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 2/4with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 1/4over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Sturm Graz come throughOur pickSturm Graz1.59
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–011%
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- Projected goals
- 2.8
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–028%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.71
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 53%
| Stat | STU | NK | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.35 | 1.84 | 0.95 | 2.8 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.4 | 1.48 | 1.23 | 2.7 |
| Shots | 15.8 | 13.1 | 28.9 |
| CornersLeague 4.6 | 5.88 | 4.88 | 10.8 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | STU | NK |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 4/5 | 2/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 2/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 1/5 |
- WSturm Graz 2–0 NK Celjefriendly (per goal.com H2H list, date unstated)2 gls
- WSturm Graz 6–2 NK Publikum Celje2015-09 · friendly8 gls
- DSturm Graz 1–1 NK Publikum Celje2007-02-15 · friendly2 gls
- WNK Publikum Celje 0–2 Sturm Graz2006-10-06 · friendly2 gls
Match context
- Form
- Sturm Graz WDDLW-ish recent run D L D W W (1-1 Wolfsberg, 2-3 Lustenau cup, 2-2 Ried, 1-0 Marseille, 6-1 GAK) — scoring but leaking; Celje W D W D L (4-0 Nafta, 1-1 Olimpija, 2-0 cup, 2-2 Salzburg, 0-3 Omonia).
- History
- Searches (goal.com preview, AiScore H2H, UEFA/ESPN Sturm results) show no competitive meeting in recent seasons — the only verified fixtures are friendlies: Sturm Graz 2-0 Celje and Sturm Graz 6-2 Celje (1-2 at HT), plus a 1-1 draw in 2007. All were played in Graz and all pre-date 2016, so there is no meaningful competitive history; the 2026-27 fixture is their first Europa League meeting. Stature still favours Sturm: a regular European group-stage side (Europa League 2025-26, 4 pts from 3 in 2…
- The competition
- UEFA Europa League 2026/27 league phase (36-team single table, matchday 4 of 8) — a top-tier continental competition where every point matters for finishing 1-8 (direct R16) or 9-24 (play-off), with 25-36 eliminated. Sturm Graz have 4 pts from 3 (W1 D1 L1; beat Marseille 1-0, lost 3-0 at Bournemouth, 0-0 v Rennes) and sit around 19th, so they are in the play-off places but hunting a top-8 push and need home wins. NK Celje have 1 pt (D1 L2; 2-2 Salzburg, 0-3 Omonia, 0-2 at Leverkusen) and are 29…
Team news
- Otar Kiteishvili — out (mid)
- Daniil Khudyakov — out (gk)
- Seedy Jatta — out (fwd)
- Nelson Weiper — out (fwd)
- Gizo Mamageishvili — out (mid)
- Filip Rozga — out (mid)
- Emran Soglo — out (def)
- L. Grgic — out (unknown)
No absences reported.
UEFA Europa League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 8 | — | 19 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | — | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | — | 17 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Igor JesusNottingham Forest7 goals
- 2Petar StanićLudogorets7 goals
- 3AntonyReal Betis6 goals
- 4Kerem AktürkoğluFenerbahçe6 goals
- 5Vincenzo GrifoSC Freiburg5 goals
- 1Deniz UndavVfB Stuttgart6 assists
- 2Emiliano BuendíaAston Villa6 assists
- 3Morgan RogersAston Villa5 assists
- 4Ricardo HortaBraga5 assists
- 5Andrija ŽivkovićPAOK5 assists
- 1Aston Villa9 clean sheets
- 2Nottingham Forest7 clean sheets
- 3Braga7 clean sheets
- 4FC Midtjylland5 clean sheets
- 5Viktoria Plzeň5 clean sheets
UEFA.com 2025/26 stats: 512 goals / 189 matches = 2.71; over-2.5 52.8% (GoalStatsLab); table stat32/Tribuna; leaders UEFA.com, ESPN, Statz
More UEFA Europa League tips this weekend
- Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.21
- AC Milan vs Ferencvaros · Full time result · AC Milan1.38
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.20
- Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · Full time result · Bournemouth1.55
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon · Full time result · Real Sociedad1.73
Frequently asked questions
What is our Sturm Graz vs NK Celje prediction?
We project 1–0. The bookmakers' own prices imply Sturm Graz 62%, the draw 21% and NK Celje 17%.
What is the best bet for Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Our tip is Full time result · Sturm Graz at 1.59. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Sturm Graz vs NK Celje kick off?
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje kicks off at Thu 20:00 in the UEFA Europa League.
Who is out for Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Reported absences: Otar Kiteishvili (out), Daniil Khudyakov (out), Seedy Jatta (out), Nelson Weiper (out), Gizo Mamageishvili (out), Filip Rozga (out), Emran Soglo (out), L. Grgic (out).
What happened the last time Sturm Graz vs NK Celje met?
Sturm Graz 2–0 NK Celje (friendly (per goal.com H2H list, date unstated)). Over their last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 draw and 0 for NK Celje.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.